Politics Monday: Health Insurance Reform - When To Watch

Many people are all in a tizzy over the health insurance bills. Some have a public option, one doesn't. Will it have insurance exchanges? A real public option? Mandates? Taxes on insurance benefits? Fines for not getting insurance?

All these questions are a bit premature at least in saying whether or not you like the bill that will be signed. That is because the real action in this debate is going to happen in the conference committee. Here is the wiki page on how the Conference Committee works. Probably the most important thing to watch is who gets sent to the conference committee. The different houses and parties have different methods on who they select. The list of conferees will give us a preview of what the final bill will look like. If the committee looks like the Senate Finance Committee (rural conservative Democrats) then the public option will not likely survive or if it does, it will be weak. If, on the other hand, liberal Dems are selected, the public option will survive.

Only when the committee comes back to the house is the debate going to matter enough to watch closely. That, along with the success or failure of the passage will set the boundaries for next year's elections. A successful passage of the bill with a strong public option will mean the Democrats stand on better footing. Failure or a sham reform bill will mean the Democrats will have to outlast the rage and disappointment of the left.