Election 2009 Recap

On my election night liveblogging, there was a call for a summary/recap/etc. So, here it goes.

Governorships go the GOP: Why did the Dems lose both races for governor? If you answered everyone hates Obama, you are wrong. However, Obama and the Democrats in Washington DC are partly responsible. First off, Virginia has gone for the party NOT in the White House every time since the 70s; it is just their contrarian nature. The Republican candidate did a very good job highlighting his support among female voters (especially after his anti-woman/gay thesis got out) and was just a plain better candidate than the Democrat. In New Jersey, a former investment executive who hadn't done a very good job as Governor lost. The real surprise of the season was that Corzine came back to have a fighting chance. All year long he was lots of polling points behind the GOP candidate. The false hope created by the polls collapsed as the those surging to support the Independent candidate decided it was more important to oust Corzine than vote with their favorite candidate. Those local factors combined with what we can squarely blame Obama and the Dems in Congress on. Democrats who were "fired up and ready to go" last year stayed home. Why? Because they asked for sweeping change and Obama and Dems haven't had the balls to do it. Bring the troops home, pass real health care reform, take on Wall Street, and invest in combating climate change. Had the Dems not been afraid to bring about quick, sweeping change, progressive voters would still be fired up and ready to go. Bottom line: Local candidate problems + no real change yet = GOP Governors.

Congressional Races: Not much can be said about the California 10 race except the swing/moderate district went to the Democrat. Had last night truly been about rejecting Obama and Democratic control of Congress, he would have lost. The New York race is far more interesting as it previews the potential for trouble for the GOP next year. As primary voters select candidates in the vein of Palin/Limbaugh/RedState.com who offer nothing but anti-government rhetoric and wingnut campaign donation, they will lose their grip on seats. Anyone else notice the GOP candidate had more votes than the difference between the Democratic winner and Conservative candidate? If the GOP can keep the bloodsport within the party, they may come out stronger and better but if they get a primary result they don't like and shift to third parties, the future of the party may be in real danger. Again, if the election was truly about saying no the meek Obama/Reid/Pelosi changes, the Conservative would have won.

Equality Loses: The defeat for equality in Maine was disappointing because it looked like voters would finally approve gay marriage. Alas, the repeal barely passed and once more a state has created three classes of citizens for itself. Although the Washington ballot measure looks like it will pass, it is still a defeat for equality as Washingtonians approve "everything but marriage" because, you know, gays can't be trusted with such a sacred word. The take away from these races is that marriage equality is probably still a few years away. The other thing that crosses my mind is that perhaps there is a gay polling/result discrepancy as there used to be for African American candidates. People aren't willing to admit they are bigots when asked by pollsters but when they walk into the voting booth, they have no problem voting against equality.